![]() ![]() ![]() Ukraine has in turn targeted infrastructure in the occupied territories, and taken other measures to “shape” the battlefield ahead of the assault. Russian long-range weapons are targeting supplies being prepped for the offensive. Warmer weather has dried mud in the countryside that would have slowed the advance Ukrainian vehicles will now be able to operate cross-country. In the coming days, everything will be at stake. Setbacks in the field will provide political cover for those in the West who already believe that Ukraine has received enough and that the time has arrived for negotiation and peace involving the sacrifice of large chunks of Ukrainian territory. ![]() Unlocking more assistance is unlikely without new successes. In late September, after Ukraine’s first major (highly successful) counter-offensive, the United States announced another $1.1bn in aid. After Ukraine’s successful counter-offensive at the end of March 2022 drove the Russians back from Irpin and uncovered the atrocities at Bucha, the US authorized another $300m and UAVs. The next week, they received US weapons to counter “ airborne and armored threats”, which was followed with more equipment together totaling $1bn. In early March 2022, Ukrainians stopped the Russian advance on Kyiv. Ukrainian successes generated further American support. They remember the course of events since February 24, 2022, when no one gave Ukraine’s armed forces a chance against the supposed Russian military behemoth.Īnd they will have in their minds what happened next. Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his aides know this better than anyone. Success will justify further expenditure by the West on Ukraine’s behalf and give its people the belief to keep fighting until concessions are extracted from Moscow. Ukraine must attack, because political imperatives are driving its decision-making. Mid-May is here and with it, the much-anticipated Ukrainian spring counter-offensive seems imminent. ![]()
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